* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 48 48 50 49 49 51 54 58 60 62 62 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 49 48 48 50 49 49 51 54 58 60 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 46 45 43 43 44 44 43 41 40 40 41 44 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 30 20 17 14 24 21 25 23 24 13 11 3 7 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -8 -7 -3 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 1 0 4 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 170 174 173 171 158 158 150 147 134 126 138 123 128 150 255 296 300 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 165 163 165 168 168 165 161 155 152 152 154 153 143 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 144 143 145 149 150 144 141 136 132 132 134 132 123 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 3 6 4 8 6 8 6 8 8 11 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 50 52 58 64 68 71 71 63 57 51 41 35 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 18 18 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 47 46 49 45 56 71 73 91 81 92 93 98 -1 -25 -67 -99 200 MB DIV 63 31 34 37 23 39 78 52 47 31 28 9 17 7 2 -10 -10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 9 11 10 11 3 -1 -1 -12 -7 -12 0 4 17 20 LAND (KM) 150 138 125 106 97 76 56 33 59 109 168 235 292 366 449 375 271 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.5 87.7 88.0 88.4 89.2 90.0 90.6 90.9 91.3 91.6 91.9 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 1 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 41 43 45 52 55 57 45 44 47 50 57 64 43 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.9 87.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.3% 8.7% 6.0% 5.3% 8.3% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.1% 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.2% 4.4% 2.3% 1.9% 3.1% 3.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 48 48 49 48 48 50 49 49 51 54 58 60 62 62 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 48 49 48 48 50 49 49 51 54 58 60 62 62 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 47 46 46 48 47 47 49 52 56 58 60 60 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 40 40 42 41 41 43 46 50 52 54 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT