* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 66 70 72 73 68 67 64 59 55 52 52 53 57 61 60 V (KT) LAND 55 49 41 35 33 35 30 29 26 21 17 15 N/A 16 20 22 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 42 36 33 36 35 35 35 37 38 38 38 38 39 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 23 23 18 27 21 15 15 21 19 17 20 18 17 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 2 1 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 182 167 165 178 185 178 184 165 153 157 176 161 170 171 150 161 161 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.0 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 167 165 165 166 168 169 167 158 156 155 157 158 155 150 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 151 150 147 145 144 149 157 150 141 138 137 139 141 139 134 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 4 7 3 7 3 9 5 9 6 700-500 MB RH 69 61 58 54 49 46 44 48 50 54 56 60 63 65 68 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 23 23 23 19 18 15 13 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 88 79 76 72 68 23 20 19 39 49 57 50 64 74 74 54 200 MB DIV 86 102 82 70 41 39 18 8 -18 4 -1 6 18 17 37 65 56 700-850 TADV 11 11 12 10 5 5 6 8 7 7 6 1 4 3 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 21 -17 -57 -64 -16 25 41 37 91 176 183 152 106 52 3 -46 -100 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.7 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.5 87.8 88.0 88.2 88.5 89.1 90.1 91.2 92.1 92.9 93.4 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 2 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 71 57 49 49 49 56 56 54 49 40 34 31 31 30 27 24 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -7. -10. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -3. -3. -2. 2. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 87.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 52.4% 37.6% 26.6% 18.6% 23.4% 13.6% 11.4% Logistic: 35.8% 34.2% 44.5% 34.4% 4.8% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 21.6% 1.3% 25.9% 6.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 29.6% 29.3% 36.0% 22.6% 8.8% 9.8% 4.7% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 49 41 35 33 35 30 29 26 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 46 40 38 40 35 34 31 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 45 43 45 40 39 36 31 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 45 40 39 36 31 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT