* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 53 55 57 56 57 57 57 55 54 55 55 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 40 45 40 36 32 34 33 34 34 34 33 31 32 32 33 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 41 36 32 33 32 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 25 23 24 28 18 16 16 20 21 22 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 1 2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 185 166 166 178 185 177 161 146 129 146 152 152 140 148 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 168 166 165 166 168 169 169 163 157 155 155 161 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 158 153 149 146 145 148 152 152 146 138 138 138 144 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 63 59 54 46 45 46 49 52 57 62 69 70 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 22 21 20 19 16 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 76 77 77 69 59 29 18 9 26 43 66 72 85 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 83 102 118 85 31 22 38 18 64 39 42 32 41 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 12 9 8 3 4 7 8 9 5 6 2 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 92 37 -18 -55 -53 22 47 58 61 134 196 202 145 69 7 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.1 87.5 87.8 88.0 88.4 88.9 89.7 90.7 91.6 92.3 92.8 93.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 100 74 57 49 49 55 54 51 50 43 41 36 31 30 30 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -19. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 17. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 15. 15. 16. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.2 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 38.5% 22.9% 8.9% 8.2% 10.3% 11.9% 11.9% Logistic: 21.4% 34.0% 31.3% 16.6% 3.5% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.4% 15.0% 11.9% 6.8% 1.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 29.2% 22.0% 10.8% 4.5% 5.9% 4.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 40 36 32 34 33 34 34 34 33 31 32 32 33 36 36 18HR AGO 40 39 34 30 26 28 27 28 28 28 27 25 26 26 27 30 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 28 30 29 30 30 30 29 27 28 28 29 32 32 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 28 27 28 28 28 27 25 26 26 27 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT