* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 35 33 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 33 31 30 32 30 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 32 31 30 31 30 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 20 18 19 19 34 42 48 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 256 262 257 260 254 240 237 238 258 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.4 29.0 28.7 27.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 146 148 146 141 151 147 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 118 120 123 123 119 129 125 106 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 3 4 2 4 2 4 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 50 49 50 46 44 42 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 10 9 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -6 -10 3 2 -10 13 -3 -3 8 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 6 12 13 1 -2 28 -3 2 3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 0 -1 -2 0 1 -3 6 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 29 11 -8 -7 -12 6 24 -59 -153 -309 -463 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.3 31.7 33.3 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.2 96.3 96.1 95.9 95.0 93.8 92.3 90.7 89.3 87.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 3 5 7 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 38 40 42 46 31 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -18. -23. -26. -28. -32. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. -20. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -22. -25. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.3 96.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.3% 7.9% 5.9% 5.0% 7.4% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.0% 5.6% 3.3% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.4% 4.5% 3.1% 1.9% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 33 31 30 32 30 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 33 31 30 32 30 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 35 33 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 29 25 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT