* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 35 40 47 57 60 65 65 67 65 60 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 35 40 47 57 60 65 65 67 65 60 58 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 35 36 37 37 37 34 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 11 9 10 3 5 6 7 8 11 11 15 11 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 4 2 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 4 9 5 9 SHEAR DIR 52 40 35 39 54 51 73 342 350 323 311 284 265 282 266 278 269 SST (C) 29.5 30.2 30.2 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.1 24.5 25.0 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 167 167 153 149 145 138 131 124 126 123 121 113 107 112 104 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 69 66 63 57 54 52 50 48 44 40 37 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 20 20 20 23 23 26 26 28 28 27 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 31 48 51 37 35 32 36 36 42 47 46 65 78 81 81 200 MB DIV 65 53 50 58 61 22 20 9 0 -18 -1 -6 1 -7 -16 -10 -7 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -13 -9 -7 -8 2 5 2 5 6 6 8 8 6 5 11 LAND (KM) 560 607 661 642 623 691 775 886 1011 1113 1221 1339 1462 1591 1724 1859 1997 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.8 110.7 111.7 112.7 115.0 117.2 119.1 120.8 122.4 124.0 125.5 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 23 16 13 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 12. 13. 17. 17. 19. 17. 14. 11. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 32. 35. 40. 40. 42. 40. 35. 33. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.89 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 2.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 5.6% 6.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##