* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 51 50 45 41 41 39 35 31 28 27 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 51 50 37 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 16 17 21 20 19 22 37 42 45 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 2 0 -1 -1 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 258 251 241 242 269 258 250 235 234 239 275 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.3 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 156 154 151 151 161 160 163 165 156 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 132 129 125 124 133 133 137 139 130 108 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -52.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 1 2 1 4 3 5 3 6 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 51 57 54 52 47 47 43 41 37 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 18 16 12 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 1 -6 12 12 -7 0 -1 11 -29 -10 -34 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 27 22 31 18 17 9 -3 21 -9 -28 -37 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 5 11 6 0 -4 1 3 3 5 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 132 79 46 14 -31 -59 -36 -62 -166 -236 -359 -444 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.7 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.2 95.8 94.9 93.7 92.3 91.0 89.8 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 2 4 5 7 8 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 52 42 37 39 40 34 19 5 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -19. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -9. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -22. -22. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.6 94.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.6% 10.8% 7.9% 7.1% 9.5% 11.0% 6.7% Logistic: 4.0% 8.2% 9.2% 7.7% 1.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.7% 6.7% 5.2% 2.7% 4.1% 3.8% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 51 50 37 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 49 48 35 29 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 31 25 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 26 20 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT