* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 37 37 39 41 44 46 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 37 37 39 41 44 46 48 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 19 21 26 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 8 5 3 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 281 277 287 296 285 286 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 135 136 137 135 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 134 134 135 130 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 63 60 57 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 68 56 50 53 44 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 19 28 22 51 14 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 1 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1801 1731 1656 1593 1543 1441 1378 1334 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.8 40.1 41.4 42.8 45.4 47.5 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 11 9 11 21 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 37.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.9% 8.8% 6.1% 5.2% 7.5% 7.3% 6.7% Logistic: 3.6% 8.4% 6.2% 4.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.5% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 37 37 39 41 44 46 48 50 53 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 36 36 38 40 43 45 47 49 52 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 31 31 33 33 35 37 40 42 44 46 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 25 25 27 27 29 31 34 36 38 40 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT