* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 47 50 58 64 64 63 63 61 61 58 57 50 44 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 47 50 58 64 64 63 63 61 61 58 57 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 45 48 50 49 50 51 52 52 53 51 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 15 13 13 13 11 13 7 10 8 14 22 33 41 40 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 3 3 0 0 -2 -1 1 3 2 0 2 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 208 218 226 225 221 237 209 235 227 245 231 256 239 233 229 232 240 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 168 168 168 168 164 162 161 162 165 165 163 164 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 148 145 142 142 143 138 134 133 135 138 137 135 136 140 137 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 75 69 67 62 59 52 55 61 70 65 65 60 58 53 49 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 20 23 20 24 24 21 19 19 17 18 18 21 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 25 30 49 24 32 10 17 -1 17 -30 -8 -20 32 4 -11 200 MB DIV 75 41 36 36 32 30 57 36 21 34 9 9 36 53 30 5 10 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 1 4 10 12 13 7 8 1 6 3 3 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 446 432 428 418 410 349 271 198 172 149 127 93 89 76 16 -70 -145 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.1 93.0 93.1 93.1 93.7 94.5 95.3 95.7 95.8 95.6 95.2 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 83 86 89 76 66 60 63 59 50 44 48 49 51 54 38 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 5. 7. 2. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -2. -7. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 23. 29. 29. 28. 28. 26. 26. 23. 22. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.9 93.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 23.1% 12.0% 7.9% 7.2% 9.9% 15.7% 26.5% Logistic: 9.7% 22.6% 14.7% 6.9% 2.2% 6.7% 4.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 16.1% 9.2% 5.1% 3.2% 5.6% 7.0% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 47 50 58 64 64 63 63 61 61 58 57 39 31 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 46 54 60 60 59 59 57 57 54 53 35 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 41 49 55 55 54 54 52 52 49 48 30 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 32 40 46 46 45 45 43 43 40 39 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT