* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 57 65 67 66 61 62 60 59 56 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 57 65 67 66 61 62 60 59 56 55 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 41 44 46 47 46 46 47 49 51 53 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 14 12 12 15 10 11 5 7 8 8 15 26 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 4 4 -1 1 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 196 187 177 196 212 202 222 201 232 181 166 157 188 204 218 224 245 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 168 168 168 164 160 157 157 159 165 169 160 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 154 154 150 144 145 144 138 134 130 130 132 139 144 137 132 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 72 68 59 55 59 63 68 62 61 57 59 57 55 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 20 19 21 20 17 14 14 12 12 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 40 39 33 52 34 43 19 24 5 11 -12 1 -16 3 -39 200 MB DIV 60 60 72 38 30 51 34 47 44 15 34 20 19 37 47 30 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 3 13 15 14 12 6 4 0 3 3 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 328 366 408 418 418 397 341 260 190 140 115 114 136 191 184 158 58 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.0 93.8 93.5 93.3 93.3 93.8 94.6 95.3 95.8 96.1 96.2 96.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 2 2 1 1 1 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 88 91 88 83 85 84 68 66 55 44 36 34 39 58 79 40 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 10. 7. 3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 27. 35. 37. 36. 31. 32. 30. 29. 26. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.6 94.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.54 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.86 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 24.4% 12.1% 7.7% 7.2% 10.2% 17.7% 35.7% Logistic: 10.1% 40.4% 24.7% 12.2% 6.1% 13.1% 10.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 5.9% 22.3% 12.5% 6.7% 4.5% 7.8% 9.3% 12.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 51 57 65 67 66 61 62 60 59 56 55 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 48 54 62 64 63 58 59 57 56 53 52 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 42 48 56 58 57 52 53 51 50 47 46 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 39 47 49 48 43 44 42 41 38 37 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT