* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 80 75 69 57 42 30 26 23 20 19 19 20 21 20 17 V (KT) LAND 85 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 67 52 41 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 28 32 31 41 48 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 0 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 253 247 252 250 246 244 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 28.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 155 157 157 156 159 149 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 131 132 131 134 126 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 4 4 2 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 65 63 57 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 23 21 19 15 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 26 27 16 36 79 70 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 60 70 61 63 70 26 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 20 16 14 10 1 -23 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -13 -50 -89 -153 -218 -259 -147 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.7 32.2 33.1 33.9 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.2 86.8 86.1 85.5 83.6 81.0 78.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 4 4 4 4 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -24. -29. -31. -31. -30. -31. -30. -30. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -16. -28. -43. -55. -59. -62. -65. -66. -66. -65. -64. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.4 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 5.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 6.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 68 52 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 68 57 51 45 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 12HR AGO 85 82 81 70 64 58 57 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 69 63 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT