* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 66 73 80 85 85 87 89 94 95 94 94 91 90 91 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 66 73 80 85 85 87 89 94 95 94 94 91 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 65 71 80 84 85 87 90 90 89 87 87 87 88 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 8 7 2 4 14 15 14 11 10 7 16 21 17 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 4 7 8 5 2 4 2 1 0 0 -3 0 9 SHEAR DIR 8 33 7 28 47 253 292 264 271 264 246 221 286 322 329 337 273 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 146 147 150 150 146 143 143 145 149 148 146 147 145 145 146 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 145 145 146 145 140 136 134 135 138 136 131 129 127 126 126 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 59 59 56 54 51 52 53 50 51 53 54 53 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 30 32 30 31 29 30 33 36 38 38 40 40 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 69 76 70 54 69 53 45 38 41 40 32 30 39 87 91 200 MB DIV 71 97 123 122 120 48 21 22 42 21 75 -9 38 -13 23 5 75 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -9 -4 -2 0 0 7 7 4 9 9 2 1 6 3 5 LAND (KM) 1312 1260 1209 1180 1161 1178 1231 1257 1267 1256 1166 1113 1111 1142 1217 1325 1444 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.5 18.9 20.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.5 45.7 46.6 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.6 52.7 53.9 55.1 56.3 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 22 31 37 37 33 25 28 43 52 47 30 25 23 24 25 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 6. 4. 5. 7. 12. 13. 12. 13. 12. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 28. 35. 40. 40. 42. 44. 49. 50. 49. 49. 46. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 43.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 48.7% 35.2% 15.7% 9.8% 31.2% 41.4% 50.3% Logistic: 14.1% 53.0% 36.5% 13.5% 5.7% 18.9% 11.8% 12.2% Bayesian: 6.5% 9.9% 9.5% 0.9% 0.4% 9.9% 31.4% 7.3% Consensus: 10.6% 37.2% 27.0% 10.0% 5.3% 20.0% 28.2% 23.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 16( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 59 66 73 80 85 85 87 89 94 95 94 94 91 90 91 18HR AGO 45 44 52 59 66 73 78 78 80 82 87 88 87 87 84 83 84 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 55 62 67 67 69 71 76 77 76 76 73 72 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 49 54 54 56 58 63 64 63 63 60 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT