* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 89 93 98 95 90 75 65 54 43 34 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 89 93 98 95 90 75 65 54 43 34 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 84 89 94 100 95 80 59 46 39 36 37 39 41 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 5 12 25 44 55 53 38 17 11 15 24 38 44 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 0 1 8 4 3 8 -2 -2 1 3 5 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 6 16 202 211 210 209 216 214 231 234 253 281 302 320 341 10 26 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.9 25.4 25.1 23.2 20.0 21.1 22.4 22.7 23.2 24.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 139 141 137 137 139 112 109 95 79 82 88 90 93 99 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 118 120 118 121 123 98 94 82 70 71 76 78 80 85 89 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 34 34 37 39 42 42 40 35 31 31 34 34 34 31 30 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 33 35 40 40 43 40 38 33 27 23 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 26 3 10 13 33 57 53 46 14 25 4 -9 -4 10 26 20 18 200 MB DIV -21 3 39 61 54 115 110 59 18 1 -6 -3 -41 -58 -43 -52 -46 700-850 TADV -3 -1 5 4 0 -5 -31 -40 -30 -23 -5 -2 -14 -20 -9 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1245 1155 1071 1014 941 855 834 654 733 965 1189 1380 1544 1682 1831 1996 1962 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.9 32.8 33.9 34.9 37.0 39.1 41.2 43.0 44.5 45.0 44.5 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.1 64.6 64.1 63.5 60.1 55.3 50.2 45.4 41.1 37.8 35.5 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 14 19 22 21 19 15 10 8 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 26 26 18 17 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -35. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -14. -17. -16. -15. -15. -17. -19. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 13. 9. 6. -2. -10. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 23. 20. 15. 0. -10. -21. -32. -41. -50. -56. -64. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.9 63.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 735.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 16.7% 11.3% 8.3% 7.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 14.1% 13.6% 5.5% 1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 10.3% 8.5% 4.8% 2.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 14( 26) 21( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 89 93 98 95 90 75 65 54 43 34 25 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 83 87 92 89 84 69 59 48 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 85 82 77 62 52 41 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 71 66 51 41 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 62 57 42 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS