* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 85 89 97 100 98 91 80 74 64 53 45 39 30 22 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 85 89 97 100 98 91 80 74 64 53 45 39 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 79 84 90 99 101 95 82 66 54 45 39 38 39 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 2 4 10 24 40 48 50 42 26 20 19 23 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 2 8 4 3 6 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 122 211 319 331 230 212 206 218 218 242 250 257 257 268 277 300 301 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.4 25.3 25.3 23.5 21.9 22.1 22.7 22.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 138 139 137 137 137 131 109 109 95 86 86 88 87 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 118 118 117 118 118 112 93 91 80 74 74 75 74 74 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 8 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 37 38 42 41 37 32 29 27 31 35 41 45 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 30 33 37 38 38 36 37 33 29 26 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 48 38 27 10 11 30 42 40 43 30 17 -20 -30 -32 -45 -58 -56 200 MB DIV -7 -9 -23 4 40 43 104 103 47 14 -14 -15 7 -22 -15 -25 -18 700-850 TADV 6 1 0 0 4 1 0 -17 -39 -31 -44 -9 -2 -10 -11 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 1319 1361 1256 1165 1079 941 870 870 760 730 832 985 1146 1300 1434 1563 1699 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 31.0 31.9 32.8 34.9 36.8 38.4 39.9 41.2 42.3 43.2 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.4 62.4 63.4 64.0 64.5 63.5 60.2 56.0 52.1 48.1 44.6 41.6 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 13 17 18 17 15 13 10 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 22 18 26 18 17 21 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 11. 10. 7. 8. 2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 27. 30. 28. 21. 10. 4. -6. -17. -25. -31. -40. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 61.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.94 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.24 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 19.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 16.4% 16.9% 5.3% 1.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 1.8% 4.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 12.4% 11.3% 2.3% 0.3% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 11( 21) 20( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 79 85 89 97 100 98 91 80 74 64 53 45 39 30 22 18HR AGO 70 69 73 79 83 91 94 92 85 74 68 58 47 39 33 24 16 12HR AGO 70 67 66 72 76 84 87 85 78 67 61 51 40 32 26 17 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 72 75 73 66 55 49 39 28 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT