* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 77 80 89 95 99 95 93 86 80 71 62 55 48 37 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 77 80 89 95 99 95 93 86 80 71 62 55 48 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 75 80 89 98 97 90 80 68 56 49 44 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 7 2 1 6 3 11 24 38 36 31 32 28 24 20 25 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 0 5 7 2 8 5 5 2 1 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 175 188 159 248 299 262 218 204 208 207 218 244 232 244 240 265 295 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 25.5 25.1 21.1 21.4 19.4 19.3 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 144 141 139 140 136 135 136 112 108 84 84 77 76 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 127 125 120 117 118 117 116 116 96 92 75 74 69 68 65 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -54.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 37 36 39 44 41 36 36 36 36 32 30 34 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 28 32 34 37 37 38 37 37 35 32 30 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 55 46 48 40 24 14 35 43 27 34 15 -1 -22 -36 2 12 -54 200 MB DIV 26 3 -5 2 -14 33 47 87 87 71 29 -2 9 35 8 8 -34 700-850 TADV 13 12 7 0 0 4 0 0 -11 -20 6 16 7 7 3 -10 -19 LAND (KM) 1324 1318 1326 1361 1248 1087 982 897 880 834 701 730 885 1067 1224 1360 1506 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.4 31.0 32.6 34.3 36.1 37.7 39.2 40.8 42.5 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.3 61.5 62.5 63.5 64.5 63.8 61.3 57.8 53.9 50.0 46.0 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 9 11 15 17 17 17 16 13 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 21 25 21 23 23 16 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. -1. -4. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 24. 30. 34. 30. 28. 21. 15. 6. -3. -10. -17. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.6 59.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 591.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 19.6% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 27.2% 27.5% 9.6% 2.9% 10.6% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 16.0% 13.7% 3.2% 1.0% 7.8% 1.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 11( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 73 77 80 89 95 99 95 93 86 80 71 62 55 48 37 18HR AGO 65 64 69 73 76 85 91 95 91 89 82 76 67 58 51 44 33 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 77 83 87 83 81 74 68 59 50 43 36 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 67 73 77 73 71 64 58 49 40 33 26 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT