* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 76 85 93 96 95 94 90 86 81 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 76 85 93 96 95 94 90 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 57 57 56 58 65 76 86 93 95 92 86 79 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 34 31 29 21 12 5 3 6 6 15 30 31 28 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 4 1 3 -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 4 0 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 220 225 215 214 207 202 214 248 304 315 271 227 226 240 238 226 220 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 137 142 147 152 161 159 150 145 147 145 135 136 132 133 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 124 129 133 136 144 141 131 123 122 120 113 113 109 109 97 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.3 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 7 4 3 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 52 50 47 47 43 44 50 58 56 58 57 58 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 29 33 36 37 39 44 46 48 48 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 96 95 89 72 59 53 30 18 35 57 38 54 60 76 111 200 MB DIV -7 11 33 18 -8 4 18 -7 -6 16 34 55 73 109 96 67 122 700-850 TADV 11 10 5 11 15 14 14 7 0 0 1 -1 6 14 32 31 32 LAND (KM) 1658 1576 1499 1437 1384 1331 1310 1297 1324 1184 1070 1007 968 933 896 813 702 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.5 26.0 27.5 28.8 29.9 31.1 32.4 33.9 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.3 52.3 53.2 54.1 55.8 57.7 60.0 62.2 64.2 64.8 64.1 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 7 8 10 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 27 31 36 31 34 28 24 21 31 31 15 14 18 18 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 22. 23. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 21. 30. 38. 41. 40. 39. 35. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.4 50.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 53 53 54 60 67 76 85 93 96 95 94 90 86 81 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 52 53 59 66 75 84 92 95 94 93 89 85 80 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 51 57 64 73 82 90 93 92 91 87 83 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 52 59 68 77 85 88 87 86 82 78 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT