* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 55 58 59 58 55 52 46 47 43 42 38 35 36 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 53 55 58 59 58 55 52 46 47 43 42 38 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 62 65 65 63 59 55 51 47 44 41 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 6 4 1 11 16 29 30 33 23 23 17 18 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 3 1 2 10 0 -3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 95 94 120 107 95 276 312 296 309 304 309 332 360 20 31 43 76 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.0 27.0 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 116 118 120 118 114 124 132 134 133 137 141 138 134 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 107 109 111 109 105 112 118 117 114 116 118 115 112 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.1 -52.2 -51.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 64 60 56 55 57 61 61 57 52 45 42 39 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 12 10 9 6 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 66 63 61 59 53 6 -19 -55 -69 -91 -97 -120 -105 -124 -111 -111 200 MB DIV 8 19 17 3 -18 -8 -17 -2 5 -8 -15 -22 -34 -20 -23 -28 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -2 4 2 0 3 0 13 12 16 11 1 -3 -6 -5 3 2 LAND (KM) 1944 2037 2131 2209 2168 2119 2125 2192 2138 2104 2080 2052 1982 1899 1782 1644 1507 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.6 21.9 23.4 25.0 26.4 27.5 28.3 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.3 41.3 43.3 45.0 46.3 47.2 48.0 48.8 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 5 4 2 0 15 20 17 14 18 24 21 14 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -14. -17. -18. -22. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 1. 2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 35.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 19.6% 12.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 40.5% 26.7% 8.9% 6.6% 30.2% 20.3% 10.0% Bayesian: 8.8% 17.4% 5.3% 1.6% 0.5% 6.2% 1.4% 0.3% Consensus: 10.4% 25.8% 14.8% 6.3% 2.4% 12.1% 7.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 51 53 55 58 59 58 55 52 46 47 43 42 38 35 36 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 53 54 53 50 47 41 42 38 37 33 30 31 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 49 48 45 42 36 37 33 32 28 25 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 41 40 37 34 28 29 25 24 20 17 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT