* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 47 45 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 41 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 50 50 47 45 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 41 40 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 47 45 42 39 37 35 34 34 36 39 42 45 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 25 31 32 29 31 20 22 20 16 14 11 24 18 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 2 0 1 2 5 5 4 6 5 4 2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 227 219 218 228 227 218 223 204 196 183 201 159 161 138 156 161 226 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 129 132 134 134 135 135 143 152 160 162 157 147 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 118 122 122 120 121 121 128 136 143 141 134 124 119 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 59 56 52 54 55 55 54 52 49 48 47 44 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 21 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 102 107 110 105 99 96 98 110 100 89 77 57 37 19 12 24 -3 200 MB DIV 69 63 72 32 -3 35 11 44 4 21 26 39 26 22 21 35 4 700-850 TADV 5 13 9 4 1 3 2 6 4 6 12 8 11 -1 -6 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1756 1743 1731 1709 1658 1534 1449 1349 1288 1243 1209 1198 1228 1285 1374 1344 1207 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.5 24.9 26.4 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.1 47.0 47.9 48.9 50.7 52.1 53.2 54.1 55.1 56.4 58.0 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 9 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 10 13 18 32 41 32 31 30 33 35 28 24 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. -14. -13. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.1 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 6.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 47 45 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 41 40 40 42 18HR AGO 50 49 46 44 42 40 37 37 35 35 36 39 40 40 39 39 41 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 40 37 37 35 35 36 39 40 40 39 39 41 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 36 33 33 31 31 32 35 36 36 35 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT