* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 48 49 45 45 47 47 42 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 48 49 45 45 47 47 42 38 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 30 31 34 38 41 42 42 41 40 37 35 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 11 11 8 6 15 25 30 34 33 34 33 34 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 2 -4 2 7 3 8 7 0 3 1 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 75 55 50 56 62 72 206 264 282 295 292 313 300 306 303 306 324 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.0 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 122 122 123 119 114 124 132 133 132 131 127 124 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 118 116 115 115 110 105 112 117 115 112 109 106 104 103 104 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 68 68 70 69 64 66 66 67 63 59 58 55 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 15 12 13 15 16 16 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 109 109 123 125 113 98 76 53 36 -18 -60 -94 -90 -52 -33 -11 11 200 MB DIV -4 14 6 27 15 -25 -6 0 29 4 21 11 -10 -11 -15 -34 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 10 16 24 19 37 19 8 3 -6 -11 -14 LAND (KM) 1207 1345 1482 1626 1769 1991 2193 2348 2465 2471 2281 2170 2145 2197 2279 2249 2167 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.5 22.1 24.2 26.4 28.2 29.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.9 31.1 32.4 33.7 36.0 38.1 39.7 40.9 41.8 41.9 41.1 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 5 4 6 5 0 6 22 12 15 12 7 6 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -12. -11. -9. -10. -9. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 15. 15. 17. 17. 12. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 28.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.1% 7.6% 5.1% 4.4% 7.2% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 4.1% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2.9% 4.3% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 48 49 45 45 47 47 42 38 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 43 46 47 43 43 45 45 40 36 38 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 42 43 39 39 41 41 36 32 34 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 34 35 31 31 33 33 28 24 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT