* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 48 49 48 44 42 38 38 44 50 54 60 68 71 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 48 49 48 44 42 38 38 44 50 54 60 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 48 46 42 38 34 32 33 36 40 47 57 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 13 16 20 20 27 34 32 28 24 16 14 3 10 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -1 0 3 0 2 2 3 0 0 2 0 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 204 239 239 224 226 224 217 220 226 228 222 209 194 195 232 313 325 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 125 126 128 132 135 137 140 144 149 156 163 165 163 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 113 114 115 118 122 123 125 126 130 134 140 144 145 141 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 64 62 59 58 55 57 59 57 56 54 50 47 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 20 19 18 14 14 12 13 16 19 20 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 109 99 101 117 118 104 94 86 88 83 79 72 64 37 27 11 -9 200 MB DIV 34 42 56 71 57 34 20 12 4 20 7 11 38 6 16 18 11 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 4 7 2 0 -1 3 4 7 3 3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1786 1792 1801 1808 1819 1807 1780 1657 1542 1386 1272 1183 1140 1144 1165 1226 1309 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.6 22.4 23.4 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.8 43.1 43.6 44.2 45.8 47.7 49.6 51.3 52.9 54.3 55.7 57.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 9 12 13 16 27 42 39 35 32 31 36 35 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 4. 2. -2. -2. 4. 10. 14. 20. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 42.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.4% 8.9% 6.1% 5.1% 7.5% 7.9% 5.4% Logistic: 2.5% 10.3% 4.5% 2.1% 0.9% 5.5% 4.2% 4.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 8.1% 4.5% 2.8% 2.0% 4.3% 4.1% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 47 48 49 48 44 42 38 38 44 50 54 60 68 71 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 45 46 45 41 39 35 35 41 47 51 57 65 68 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 39 35 33 29 29 35 41 45 51 59 62 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 31 27 25 21 21 27 33 37 43 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT