* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OMAR AL152020 09/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 49 44 41 41 35 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 343 352 356 1 16 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 133 131 132 129 129 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 111 108 109 105 104 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 65 64 61 57 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -67 -51 -29 -22 -25 -44 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -8 -5 2 -15 -10 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 19 19 16 10 10 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 765 842 883 923 971 1069 1098 1120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.1 36.0 36.0 35.9 35.7 35.8 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 63.5 62.1 61.0 59.9 58.2 57.2 56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 16 14 12 10 11 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. -1. -10. -19. -27. -35. -41. -47. -55. -60. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -18. -25. -32. -40. -46. -53. -61. -66. -70. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.1 64.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 OMAR 09/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 OMAR 09/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 OMAR 09/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT