* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 59 63 68 73 78 81 86 91 95 95 97 98 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 45 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 15 14 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 4 360 16 33 15 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.5 30.8 29.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 170 172 172 161 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 168 172 172 156 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 65 66 69 75 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 11 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 54 64 61 51 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 40 41 20 23 51 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -4 -3 -2 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 135 139 44 -65 -147 -161 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.2 86.5 87.8 89.0 90.1 92.3 94.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 57 63 73 34 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 28. 31. 36. 41. 45. 45. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.1 85.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 25.1% 12.0% 8.1% 7.7% 14.3% 22.1% 29.8% Logistic: 11.7% 33.9% 24.3% 16.6% 11.9% 24.4% 26.8% 44.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 12.1% 4.6% 0.4% 0.3% 4.5% 5.0% 71.9% Consensus: 6.8% 23.7% 13.6% 8.4% 6.6% 14.4% 18.0% 48.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 41 34 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 36 29 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 33 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT