* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 30 28 27 27 26 26 26 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 33 30 28 27 27 26 26 26 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 21 19 20 19 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 65 58 50 46 58 87 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.4 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 144 138 130 126 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 72 74 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 53 51 43 45 60 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 102 77 62 50 29 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -7 -5 -11 -15 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 137 187 276 191 121 252 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.2 22.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.5 108.3 109.1 110.9 112.7 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 12 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -19. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##