* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 125 119 111 97 87 76 64 55 46 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 91 63 47 38 30 28 28 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 91 62 46 37 30 28 28 34 38 37 32 28 27 29 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 24 19 20 13 17 29 41 78 73 84 70 65 48 35 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 -3 5 4 0 1 1 -14 -12 -1 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 264 268 258 257 277 292 267 242 231 225 221 232 224 239 236 239 261 SST (C) 30.5 31.4 31.3 31.0 30.2 29.7 29.9 28.7 23.6 18.2 17.2 12.8 13.5 12.1 11.9 12.3 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 172 172 166 172 153 102 81 78 71 70 67 66 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 173 172 164 148 142 154 141 95 77 74 69 67 64 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.9 -50.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -50.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 7 11 4 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 61 58 59 57 63 65 55 44 45 49 51 44 49 54 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 23 19 14 13 11 11 16 19 16 13 11 9 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -60 -35 -36 -86 7 24 80 155 174 186 150 145 129 119 99 65 200 MB DIV 54 41 35 29 24 36 53 28 44 62 78 44 14 0 -18 -37 -32 700-850 TADV 27 11 12 15 24 -1 26 15 -61 36 -74 -140 -65 -80 -52 -37 -12 LAND (KM) -2 -146 -290 -412 -501 -626 -658 -288 85 102 54 291 758 1072 1333 1417 1190 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.1 32.4 33.5 34.6 36.2 37.2 38.2 40.3 43.4 46.8 50.2 52.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.2 93.2 92.6 92.1 89.7 85.3 79.0 71.6 63.9 56.6 49.7 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 15 22 28 31 32 30 25 18 14 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 4. -2. -11. -23. -36. -50. -63. -72. -81. -90. -97.-101.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -15. -18. -20. -17. -15. -15. -18. -18. -21. -23. -22. -21. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -24. -18. -16. -21. -26. -28. -29. -31. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -19. -33. -43. -54. -66. -75. -84. -99.-110.-116.-120.-127.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 29.8 93.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 8.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 3.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 91 63 47 38 30 28 28 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 101 85 76 68 66 66 65 56 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 130 127 126 110 101 93 91 91 90 81 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 111 103 101 101 100 91 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 103 101 101 100 91 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 IN 6HR 130 91 82 76 73 69 67 67 66 57 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT