* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132020 08/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 28 28 25 25 24 23 21 18 17 17 18 20 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 28 28 25 25 24 23 21 18 17 17 18 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 25 24 26 25 23 23 17 12 17 18 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 4 2 5 0 -1 0 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 78 71 69 72 78 75 90 95 104 119 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.2 27.3 26.4 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 155 156 145 136 127 121 124 127 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 9 6 8 3 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 82 81 80 77 76 73 76 72 76 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 11 19 27 55 63 70 62 41 44 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 76 93 60 43 59 59 64 31 33 25 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -2 -7 -6 -3 -6 -8 -3 4 6 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 227 183 163 144 178 220 70 156 230 303 383 451 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.3 22.8 22.9 22.7 22.4 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.3 106.2 106.4 106.5 107.4 108.6 110.2 111.8 113.2 114.2 115.0 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 22 26 30 20 10 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 THIRTEEN 08/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##