* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP142020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 28 31 32 29 26 24 24 21 20 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 28 31 32 29 26 24 24 21 20 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 21 24 24 26 22 24 19 22 19 26 25 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 6 5 3 6 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 82 84 81 83 70 79 72 88 85 99 95 116 133 117 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 27.4 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 150 153 154 152 153 153 150 136 130 132 131 131 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 61 63 64 67 73 75 76 69 66 62 62 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 45 56 66 88 86 71 63 54 46 59 48 36 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 53 58 60 76 52 85 67 65 53 61 20 -8 -2 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 7 6 1 -6 -3 -6 1 -3 -4 -4 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1164 1130 1096 1043 992 874 731 603 508 487 465 536 609 663 718 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.6 20.7 21.5 21.9 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.2 116.9 116.5 116.0 115.0 114.0 113.4 113.4 114.1 115.1 116.5 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 17 18 17 15 13 11 3 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 6. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##