* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 78 82 83 80 73 69 68 66 64 56 46 36 25 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 78 82 59 37 30 28 28 28 29 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 69 74 78 82 86 65 38 30 28 28 28 35 36 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 3 8 12 12 23 20 14 21 23 29 40 64 66 79 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 1 2 0 2 0 6 5 1 2 0 -7 0 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 3 30 26 328 321 262 261 256 277 261 243 234 215 207 221 233 235 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.2 31.7 31.2 30.0 30.0 28.5 27.6 21.1 19.3 16.8 12.3 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 172 172 172 173 172 171 173 148 137 89 83 76 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 168 162 165 163 157 173 169 146 151 134 126 83 78 72 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -49.6 -49.2 -49.4 -50.2 -51.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 10 12 9 13 4 10 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 57 60 59 59 55 59 64 64 54 51 53 52 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 24 25 26 26 22 17 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 39 16 8 -28 -67 -56 -85 -23 58 122 205 198 212 140 145 200 MB DIV 20 43 41 36 32 12 26 22 -1 70 23 67 63 72 86 53 35 700-850 TADV -5 0 -5 -3 0 11 6 26 13 40 10 38 -50 -82 -45 11 43 LAND (KM) 213 263 351 417 342 159 -115 -391 -542 -640 -559 -97 122 110 0 284 750 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.0 24.6 25.4 26.1 28.2 30.8 33.3 35.2 36.5 37.6 38.7 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.7 89.1 90.3 91.4 92.9 93.5 93.0 91.1 87.8 82.8 76.2 69.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 12 13 12 13 18 24 28 30 30 26 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 56 59 55 69 63 39 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -21. -30. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -17. -18. -21. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 15. 8. 4. 3. 1. -1. -9. -19. -29. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.3 86.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 32.0% 22.9% 16.9% 12.0% 17.0% 13.8% 13.2% Logistic: 7.3% 26.4% 15.2% 11.9% 8.4% 22.2% 20.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 6.3% 21.8% 6.1% 0.7% 0.3% 4.6% 2.9% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 26.7% 14.8% 9.8% 6.9% 14.6% 12.4% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 8( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 75 78 82 59 37 30 28 28 28 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 74 78 55 33 26 24 24 24 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 71 48 26 19 17 17 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 62 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT