* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 66 70 77 82 79 75 69 61 58 58 63 53 39 31 V (KT) LAND 55 62 64 69 74 81 85 51 35 29 28 27 28 36 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 69 73 81 86 53 35 29 27 27 28 34 35 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 10 4 12 15 23 20 14 20 23 33 52 71 86 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 7 4 4 1 0 3 5 5 0 1 2 -3 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 356 353 8 41 35 305 252 265 246 270 260 260 252 255 232 220 222 SST (C) 30.9 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.4 30.6 31.7 31.2 30.1 30.2 29.3 27.9 24.4 21.6 16.7 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 173 173 172 172 172 172 172 173 161 141 107 92 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 171 169 161 162 163 172 167 145 151 145 131 100 86 74 71 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.1 -49.5 -50.3 -51.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -51.2 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 12 8 13 5 12 5 6 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 55 58 60 60 59 55 59 62 62 57 54 52 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 23 24 25 26 23 20 16 12 10 10 18 17 15 19 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 12 35 42 -1 -32 -76 -61 -36 17 64 108 142 118 131 144 200 MB DIV 6 19 4 24 38 35 19 24 43 8 41 16 59 74 49 68 62 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -7 -4 -7 -2 14 8 13 19 46 18 26 49 57 -15 -59 LAND (KM) -1 84 250 319 413 253 82 -179 -417 -562 -629 -507 -88 251 300 94 477 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.9 28.9 31.4 33.6 35.4 36.4 36.7 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.8 86.3 87.6 89.0 91.3 92.8 93.3 92.5 90.9 87.8 83.1 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 12 16 22 28 31 32 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 125 154 56 52 53 49 55 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -19. -30. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -20. -23. -23. -13. -15. -16. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 27. 24. 20. 14. 6. 3. 3. 8. -2. -15. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.3 83.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.54 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 49.2% 35.2% 25.2% 21.2% 36.8% 27.0% 15.2% Logistic: 14.1% 26.1% 19.4% 13.5% 7.7% 20.0% 26.2% 8.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 48.1% 27.5% 4.7% 1.6% 12.5% 6.7% 0.3% Consensus: 13.4% 41.1% 27.4% 14.5% 10.2% 23.1% 20.0% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 64 69 74 81 85 51 35 29 28 27 28 36 25 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 61 66 73 77 43 27 21 20 19 20 28 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 61 68 72 38 22 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 57 61 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT