* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 61 68 74 76 74 70 67 63 59 53 42 31 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 57 60 67 73 55 36 30 28 28 31 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 60 64 69 72 55 35 29 28 28 28 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 14 12 13 9 8 11 22 25 23 24 35 43 54 83 94 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -3 7 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 -2 -3 -2 -12 SHEAR DIR 338 355 4 4 356 36 295 281 264 253 272 267 264 249 238 223 228 SST (C) 31.2 30.6 30.7 31.0 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.3 31.5 31.1 30.1 30.2 28.3 23.9 19.1 19.6 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 174 174 173 173 172 172 172 173 175 145 103 83 85 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 174 174 169 166 158 172 169 151 156 130 95 79 80 73 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -51.6 -52.4 -53.4 -53.0 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 9 11 7 10 5 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 59 59 59 60 65 63 59 56 64 67 64 61 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 19 19 21 20 18 15 11 9 9 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -21 -12 10 9 31 0 -13 -80 -75 -101 -27 6 72 77 96 94 200 MB DIV 22 31 15 8 15 18 43 36 36 32 38 48 29 1 20 69 20 700-850 TADV -6 -15 -14 -8 -4 -5 -1 -4 9 14 27 8 21 25 -62 -32 -69 LAND (KM) 22 53 26 7 81 337 323 151 -84 -309 -480 -639 -423 24 260 224 199 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.6 26.2 28.2 30.5 32.9 34.9 36.6 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.7 81.4 83.0 84.6 87.5 90.1 92.0 92.4 91.6 89.4 85.8 80.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 14 14 12 12 13 15 19 23 28 32 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 74 125 162 50 62 37 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 23. 25. 26. 23. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -25. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -19. -20. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 13. 19. 21. 19. 15. 12. 8. 4. -2. -13. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 78.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 97.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.60 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 34.3% 20.5% 14.7% 10.5% 20.9% 24.6% 22.6% Logistic: 2.2% 9.4% 4.8% 1.8% 1.1% 4.8% 9.8% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 22.2% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 3.9% 2.4% Consensus: 3.5% 22.0% 10.1% 5.7% 3.9% 9.0% 12.8% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 58 57 60 67 73 55 36 30 28 28 31 26 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 55 58 65 71 53 34 28 26 26 29 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 51 54 61 67 49 30 24 22 22 25 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 47 54 60 42 23 17 15 15 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT