* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 66 59 56 54 53 52 52 53 55 57 58 59 56 V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 66 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 67 66 47 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 28 30 32 35 38 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 3 -4 -4 1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 210 219 221 214 228 218 234 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.1 29.9 30.2 30.6 31.1 31.7 31.9 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 168 171 171 171 171 170 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 154 148 152 158 166 171 170 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 54 54 48 50 48 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 2 15 22 -13 5 -43 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 53 29 10 22 9 35 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 20 12 8 10 9 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 413 327 212 116 51 -43 -117 -208 -338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.9 30.8 31.5 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.6 89.1 89.7 91.2 92.9 94.5 96.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 50 52 54 40 16 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -28. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.3 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.13 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 18.6% 11.4% 8.8% 8.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 14.3% 9.8% 9.2% 4.5% 5.0% 2.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 11.6% 7.5% 6.5% 4.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 67 67 66 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 63 43 31 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 40 28 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 34 22 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT