* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 45 50 52 59 64 72 79 85 84 73 74 71 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 36 31 30 29 35 40 48 55 60 45 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 35 30 30 28 32 36 41 49 50 44 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 13 6 5 10 8 18 11 17 9 16 18 27 28 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 6 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -6 -2 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 258 264 273 227 313 320 348 2 1 354 338 281 293 286 304 265 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 30.2 30.1 31.0 30.7 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.9 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 161 159 154 174 174 174 173 172 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 161 159 154 174 174 174 173 168 165 160 163 152 151 151 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 7 10 5 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 64 64 65 63 63 66 62 66 63 62 60 62 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 14 15 15 17 16 19 21 23 24 18 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 28 43 51 18 0 -20 0 -29 -9 -20 -31 -70 -55 -15 -22 200 MB DIV 14 0 11 23 43 24 18 1 26 12 33 6 5 12 84 47 43 700-850 TADV -18 -15 -8 -10 -14 -7 -13 -21 -9 -28 -3 -16 6 -6 12 -2 8 LAND (KM) 359 191 44 42 -11 -10 -52 -41 76 307 346 159 0 -71 -214 -378 -566 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.5 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.4 27.7 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 64.3 65.9 67.6 69.3 72.8 76.4 79.9 83.0 85.5 87.3 88.6 89.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 15 12 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 66 85 61 45 58 55 65 85 129 51 62 41 15 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. -2. 2. 3. 6. 5. -3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 19. 24. 32. 39. 45. 44. 33. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 62.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.2% 11.3% 8.1% 7.5% 10.5% 15.5% 24.7% Logistic: 2.1% 9.6% 5.5% 4.7% 2.6% 9.0% 10.2% 37.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 13.3% Consensus: 3.0% 9.9% 5.8% 4.3% 3.4% 6.6% 8.7% 25.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 40 36 31 30 29 35 40 48 55 60 45 33 29 27 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 36 31 30 29 35 40 48 55 60 45 33 29 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 33 28 27 26 32 37 45 52 57 42 30 26 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 21 20 19 25 30 38 45 50 35 23 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT