* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 123 120 117 107 100 90 81 73 63 53 44 35 27 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 121 123 120 117 107 100 90 81 73 63 53 44 35 27 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 120 120 116 111 101 92 82 70 57 46 37 30 25 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 9 7 5 4 6 8 13 12 16 18 21 22 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 1 7 6 9 6 6 4 5 1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 213 197 241 240 239 260 207 183 192 183 204 181 200 195 212 200 197 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.4 26.6 25.0 24.2 23.0 22.0 21.4 21.0 20.5 20.4 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 145 141 137 137 129 113 104 92 81 75 70 63 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 73 71 65 60 57 59 56 56 50 50 43 37 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 26 25 26 25 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 58 49 71 73 66 65 51 45 34 31 43 42 39 28 14 200 MB DIV 89 89 83 74 97 63 34 9 -8 2 3 13 13 0 14 -6 1 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 -5 -6 -3 -1 4 1 3 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 365 393 378 313 258 228 241 243 323 326 398 499 580 584 575 582 600 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.6 25.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.3 110.8 111.8 112.9 114.3 115.8 117.3 118.9 120.5 122.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 13 8 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -38. -46. -54. -60. -66. -71. -77. -84. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -0. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 5. 2. -8. -15. -25. -34. -42. -52. -62. -71. -80. -88. -98.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.3 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 22.8% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 2.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 8.5% 7.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##