* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 66 80 98 103 106 101 95 85 74 67 58 49 40 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 66 80 98 103 106 101 95 85 74 67 58 49 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 48 54 70 89 106 109 99 85 71 57 45 36 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 4 3 4 5 7 3 2 6 7 11 14 11 11 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 7 4 8 SHEAR DIR 90 100 103 64 108 119 127 152 141 96 139 160 194 193 204 185 180 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.2 29.2 28.9 27.7 26.1 25.0 24.6 23.7 22.6 21.9 21.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 167 166 168 169 158 154 141 124 113 109 99 88 80 76 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 82 79 78 75 70 62 58 52 52 53 52 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 20 20 28 28 31 31 31 29 27 26 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 31 23 25 40 61 78 88 72 72 73 57 57 42 18 18 200 MB DIV 106 127 100 86 101 136 124 92 58 29 28 -7 -12 -3 0 2 12 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -11 -8 -11 -3 0 -3 -7 -6 -2 8 4 6 11 10 LAND (KM) 456 452 473 474 469 463 476 471 370 396 398 495 534 621 758 833 819 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 15.5 17.1 18.7 20.2 21.4 22.5 23.6 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.9 101.4 102.8 104.2 106.7 108.8 110.6 112.1 113.6 115.3 117.2 119.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 32 48 42 39 32 20 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 12. 16. 21. 21. 21. 18. 13. 11. 7. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 31. 45. 63. 68. 71. 66. 60. 50. 39. 32. 23. 14. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 98.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 16.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 12.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 80% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 71% is 15.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 67.3% 54.2% 40.8% 26.3% 67.8% 79.6% 70.9% Logistic: 36.0% 84.7% 75.5% 66.5% 28.0% 85.2% 76.2% 53.1% Bayesian: 9.4% 56.1% 51.9% 32.5% 2.1% 60.1% 37.7% 50.6% Consensus: 20.3% 69.4% 60.5% 46.6% 18.8% 71.0% 64.5% 58.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##