* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 40 42 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 40 42 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 23 20 19 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 30 36 35 27 26 10 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 6 4 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 249 261 271 275 274 277 247 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 155 155 154 157 163 168 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 142 140 138 140 142 145 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 46 48 50 51 53 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -39 -51 -66 -75 -81 -92 -71 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 13 7 3 15 13 21 -9 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 5 6 6 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 242 300 353 378 408 540 705 855 1017 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.3 67.1 67.8 68.4 69.1 69.1 68.6 68.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 80 70 70 66 43 37 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 65.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 38 40 42 43 43 43 45 18HR AGO 30 29 28 26 26 28 30 33 37 38 39 41 43 44 44 44 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 24 26 28 31 35 36 37 39 41 42 42 42 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 27 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT