* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 30 33 37 42 44 47 49 50 52 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 30 33 37 42 44 47 49 50 52 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 27 29 31 34 37 39 42 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 22 20 18 19 18 15 10 10 6 1 2 6 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 54 50 55 57 49 62 68 76 63 91 34 187 107 103 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 142 141 141 140 140 140 140 140 138 139 138 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 56 55 57 59 58 54 51 55 58 57 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -4 -20 -21 -22 -49 -35 -22 1 26 39 45 51 59 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 -4 -27 -23 1 -9 17 36 -3 -26 -36 -24 7 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2342 2324 2306 2285 2265 2220 2179 2146 2127 2109 2101 2110 2135 2170 2196 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.3 134.7 135.1 135.5 135.8 136.1 136.3 136.3 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##