* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 52 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 22 21 21 23 27 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 23 28 34 25 22 6 13 9 15 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 4 3 5 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 257 252 251 262 284 284 288 238 218 245 236 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 157 155 158 162 169 168 166 161 154 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 147 145 141 142 144 147 142 139 135 130 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 50 49 51 54 56 58 61 61 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -36 -43 -48 -62 -82 -74 -60 -66 -84 -82 -67 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 11 23 29 9 4 25 31 2 30 2 24 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 1 2 4 4 4 2 4 -2 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 283 314 383 411 496 673 886 1026 1006 1013 1072 1122 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.6 24.0 25.7 27.6 28.9 29.8 30.8 31.8 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.6 65.6 66.5 67.4 68.6 69.0 68.7 68.1 67.5 66.5 65.1 63.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 61 81 73 71 58 35 38 33 31 24 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. -0. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 63.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 47 49 50 50 52 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 29 30 33 36 40 43 46 48 50 51 51 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 27 28 31 34 38 41 44 46 48 49 49 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 23 26 29 33 36 39 41 43 44 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT