* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 36 39 44 48 50 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 36 39 44 48 50 51 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 24 23 23 24 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 28 34 33 30 31 18 21 7 9 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 2 3 5 1 5 -4 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 255 255 262 266 261 289 296 306 245 266 215 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 154 152 154 155 156 161 165 166 156 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 145 146 143 142 139 137 139 142 145 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 50 52 53 52 54 57 60 62 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -19 -26 -31 -42 -50 -66 -66 -55 -54 -71 -64 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 47 29 27 6 25 -4 7 26 10 16 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 0 -3 0 -1 -1 1 1 4 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 645 534 437 374 351 433 514 645 795 943 1006 1010 1018 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.4 23.9 25.4 26.8 28.1 29.7 31.7 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.8 61.9 63.0 64.1 66.2 67.8 68.7 68.9 68.6 67.6 65.9 64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 8 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 44 47 55 62 65 66 31 39 35 31 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -4. -1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 59.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 36 39 44 48 50 51 52 52 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 34 31 32 32 35 38 43 47 49 50 51 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 29 30 30 33 36 41 45 47 48 49 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 43 44 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT