* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 33 34 37 42 46 55 57 59 62 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 33 34 37 42 46 55 57 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 31 30 29 26 24 22 22 24 28 34 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 11 19 19 30 26 22 13 9 5 4 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 4 2 0 -3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 296 280 258 271 271 268 270 275 305 275 59 229 164 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 144 147 146 148 149 152 153 154 161 167 160 156 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 143 145 143 143 141 140 138 137 142 145 137 132 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 54 51 52 53 53 56 55 55 58 56 58 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 25 12 -3 -20 -33 -62 -59 -84 -70 -68 -65 -45 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 39 53 47 53 36 27 26 21 0 18 38 2 17 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 7 9 5 -1 2 0 4 7 0 11 0 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1013 928 868 841 804 527 366 398 544 657 829 1018 1060 1046 1043 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.9 19.3 20.6 22.0 23.5 25.1 26.8 28.5 30.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.7 54.1 55.4 56.8 58.1 60.8 63.2 65.2 66.5 67.3 67.4 67.1 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 38 35 46 50 41 56 69 53 29 38 33 25 22 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 11. 20. 22. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 52.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.3% 9.0% 6.1% 5.5% 8.3% 9.5% 9.9% Logistic: 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 3.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 33 34 37 42 46 55 57 59 62 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 33 34 37 42 46 55 57 59 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 32 31 31 32 35 40 44 53 55 57 60 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 25 25 26 29 34 38 47 49 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT