* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 44 48 49 50 49 52 53 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 44 48 49 50 49 52 53 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 38 37 35 33 32 33 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 2 3 5 11 12 21 23 26 17 8 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 4 5 7 4 3 -1 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 115 132 149 313 287 284 258 270 252 268 249 271 172 156 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 136 138 136 138 144 147 145 151 154 152 153 157 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 135 136 135 136 142 143 140 145 145 140 139 141 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 55 54 55 56 54 55 54 54 52 52 53 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 33 27 18 21 17 1 -22 -35 -59 -73 -77 -78 -70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -10 -23 -29 -44 -17 7 48 44 28 4 -11 -8 13 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 4 8 11 0 3 -1 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1247 1188 1130 1082 1051 1035 986 880 792 550 412 433 564 652 782 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.5 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.4 20.8 22.2 23.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.9 46.1 47.3 48.5 50.9 53.4 55.8 58.2 60.6 62.8 64.7 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 23 28 31 21 19 43 41 56 41 46 63 40 31 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 18. 19. 20. 19. 22. 23. 26. 28. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 43.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.9% 9.2% 6.3% 5.5% 8.7% 11.7% 16.2% Logistic: 5.5% 19.8% 14.5% 5.1% 2.9% 11.7% 18.1% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 14.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% Consensus: 3.4% 16.2% 8.9% 3.8% 2.8% 7.3% 10.2% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 37 44 48 49 50 49 52 53 56 58 62 65 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 35 42 46 47 48 47 50 51 54 56 60 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 38 42 43 44 43 46 47 50 52 56 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 31 35 36 37 36 39 40 43 45 49 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT