* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 77 83 82 75 66 55 45 33 26 20 17 16 16 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 77 83 82 75 66 55 45 33 26 20 17 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 76 80 77 67 56 45 36 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 10 4 4 3 10 13 13 17 19 15 13 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 1 3 2 0 -1 -4 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 315 320 311 297 271 198 183 196 205 195 214 217 233 291 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.1 25.9 25.1 24.3 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.4 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 160 156 154 150 136 123 114 105 104 100 97 99 106 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 63 62 61 59 57 52 50 42 39 35 33 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 20 22 21 19 18 14 11 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 18 23 38 11 3 -6 -7 16 28 22 29 22 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 29 25 36 42 5 20 5 18 31 0 1 -5 3 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -11 -12 -5 6 8 14 6 7 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 360 445 441 446 567 671 830 920 1040 1178 1335 1517 1716 1910 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 108.2 109.5 110.8 112.1 114.7 117.3 119.6 121.4 123.1 124.7 126.4 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 17 14 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 28. 27. 20. 11. 0. -10. -21. -29. -35. -38. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.5 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 41.8% 33.2% 25.2% 15.6% 31.3% 17.6% 12.7% Logistic: 6.8% 23.9% 12.6% 6.4% 4.6% 4.9% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 23.1% 15.5% 10.6% 6.8% 12.1% 6.2% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##