* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 66 77 86 87 80 70 61 51 42 34 28 24 21 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 66 77 86 87 80 70 61 51 42 34 28 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 62 72 79 78 70 59 49 40 33 27 23 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 7 12 1 5 3 10 14 18 18 18 16 14 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 337 303 313 327 332 288 238 142 173 189 214 218 229 229 264 271 287 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 29.9 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.1 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.2 23.8 23.7 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 165 160 156 151 136 122 115 105 104 100 99 108 111 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 70 69 64 61 58 59 52 49 45 42 38 34 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 18 23 23 20 18 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 28 21 18 30 8 -4 -4 -9 21 41 46 50 49 44 42 200 MB DIV 50 38 49 34 28 43 7 14 14 23 25 7 14 -6 7 -8 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -4 -12 -12 -10 -9 0 5 12 6 6 3 4 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 285 317 352 425 504 486 606 702 880 1009 1158 1322 1485 1647 1842 2063 2092 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.7 21.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.1 107.4 108.7 109.9 112.5 115.1 117.6 120.1 122.3 124.3 126.1 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 27 17 14 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 15. 13. 9. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 26. 37. 46. 47. 40. 30. 21. 11. 2. -6. -12. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 39.7% 28.6% 20.4% 14.7% 32.8% 31.5% 18.9% Logistic: 22.4% 55.5% 34.7% 22.4% 7.3% 33.5% 12.9% 3.5% Bayesian: 3.8% 37.0% 10.4% 3.5% 1.2% 3.8% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 44.1% 24.6% 15.4% 7.7% 23.4% 15.0% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##