* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 55 54 53 55 60 56 45 32 25 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 55 54 53 55 42 38 32 28 26 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 54 53 52 51 51 41 38 34 29 29 27 32 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 26 18 21 21 19 25 44 56 62 39 29 24 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 1 0 4 0 9 4 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 277 289 275 266 271 243 214 200 209 221 219 240 260 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.0 29.0 29.1 25.2 20.6 18.6 15.8 12.8 11.3 12.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 161 159 160 152 154 157 111 86 79 73 68 66 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 140 138 138 131 136 142 100 79 73 68 65 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.5 -49.5 -49.3 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.3 2.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 6 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 55 55 57 57 53 50 47 43 43 45 50 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 17 17 16 17 20 19 15 11 12 15 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -57 -58 -15 -13 -18 3 6 13 22 21 68 99 106 107 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 -2 15 34 30 38 75 92 48 60 40 32 21 14 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 6 -1 4 10 11 20 20 23 20 -49 -49 -48 29 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 141 78 27 14 13 56 73 -53 30 31 -51 80 8 245 489 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.3 28.0 29.7 32.0 35.3 39.2 43.2 46.5 49.1 50.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.3 79.8 80.1 80.4 80.6 79.8 77.6 74.2 70.1 65.5 60.6 56.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 10 15 21 24 24 22 19 15 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 40 38 35 33 30 31 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -11. -16. -24. -29. -32. -35. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -1. -3. -10. -16. -16. -12. -13. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -5. -6. -7. -5. 0. -4. -15. -28. -35. -37. -44. -52. -56. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.3 78.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.7% 6.5% 5.3% 4.8% 6.5% 4.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 55 54 53 55 42 38 32 28 26 27 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 57 56 55 57 44 40 34 30 28 29 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 56 55 57 44 40 34 30 28 29 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 48 50 37 33 27 23 21 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT