* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 51 52 49 50 52 52 44 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 51 52 49 50 44 40 32 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 49 47 44 43 39 36 34 29 28 27 33 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 28 29 20 29 22 28 32 43 50 53 37 32 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 1 -4 0 7 3 4 -5 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 269 274 288 274 275 266 242 222 214 228 242 258 261 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 27.8 26.4 24.0 14.2 18.8 13.3 11.5 11.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 160 163 159 156 155 137 122 102 72 79 69 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 142 138 135 136 122 109 92 69 73 66 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 7 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 53 54 55 57 55 54 59 55 56 55 58 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 17 15 16 17 17 13 10 7 8 12 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -47 -62 -60 -16 -40 -26 -38 3 -6 -28 -83 -82 -3 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 12 4 8 29 29 52 63 89 38 54 17 28 19 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 6 3 5 12 11 30 46 15 76 44 4 -36 -30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 140 71 31 26 52 128 -32 39 22 37 63 -46 157 482 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.6 29.2 31.2 34.2 37.6 41.2 44.5 47.3 49.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.8 79.4 79.8 80.1 80.4 79.9 78.2 75.2 71.5 66.8 61.1 56.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 13 19 22 24 24 22 17 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 46 39 38 35 30 36 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -21. -26. -30. -35. -37. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -11. -15. -21. -20. -15. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -8. -11. -10. -8. -8. -16. -26. -38. -46. -48. -48. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.8 78.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.7% 5.9% 5.1% 4.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 56 54 51 52 49 50 44 40 32 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 55 52 53 47 43 35 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 54 51 52 46 42 34 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 48 49 43 39 31 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT