* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 68 66 60 57 55 60 62 55 44 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 68 66 60 57 55 60 50 44 33 29 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 69 68 63 59 57 59 50 49 41 31 31 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 27 23 25 27 22 22 18 24 39 50 58 57 52 43 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 0 1 0 -3 -2 4 9 4 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 257 266 275 272 266 286 274 280 251 206 212 221 239 249 262 264 276 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.4 28.6 26.5 25.0 18.1 20.9 14.6 12.6 12.1 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 164 166 163 160 153 160 148 122 109 78 86 71 69 68 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 149 148 144 139 133 140 131 108 96 72 77 68 66 66 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -51.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 8 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 55 55 53 55 56 55 56 57 58 57 56 53 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 16 17 17 15 14 13 15 16 14 12 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -41 -52 -44 -49 -63 -32 -54 -41 -37 -30 -42 -74 -89 -80 -32 32 200 MB DIV 53 14 -1 15 4 -2 19 39 76 75 51 34 16 23 17 29 3 700-850 TADV 24 9 8 14 12 4 8 4 23 13 50 40 31 37 37 42 45 LAND (KM) 194 223 263 196 113 46 83 158 11 54 51 98 4 6 38 423 804 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.0 27.4 29.1 31.2 34.0 37.2 40.5 43.6 46.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.9 76.8 77.7 78.3 79.0 79.8 80.0 79.5 77.8 75.3 72.0 67.7 62.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 10 13 17 20 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 51 52 41 39 33 43 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -13. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -12. -16. -23. -25. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -10. -8. -15. -26. -41. -50. -59. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.9 75.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 14.8% 9.6% 7.6% 6.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 6.3% 4.3% 6.7% 3.3% 4.7% 2.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 7.6% 4.8% 4.8% 3.4% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 69 68 66 60 57 55 60 50 44 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 65 59 56 54 59 49 43 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 63 57 54 52 57 47 41 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 52 49 47 52 42 36 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT