* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 58 56 54 55 58 64 65 57 44 30 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 58 56 54 55 58 56 62 55 42 32 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 61 59 56 53 51 52 55 54 51 42 32 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 20 24 25 22 26 19 16 12 29 40 52 65 64 69 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 0 1 2 0 3 1 10 5 -4 0 -7 2 SHEAR DIR 267 264 252 259 269 266 284 268 268 228 203 218 228 244 252 273 286 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.7 29.1 26.5 23.5 17.3 20.5 14.3 10.8 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 158 161 166 169 156 153 166 156 122 98 75 84 72 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 146 148 151 149 136 133 146 137 107 87 71 76 68 67 68 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -51.3 -52.4 -53.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 10 8 10 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 52 53 55 55 53 52 51 56 56 55 52 52 57 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 15 12 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -16 -30 -43 -53 -51 -52 -43 -68 -81 -66 -43 -36 -23 -34 -49 -36 200 MB DIV 17 8 27 10 -8 11 10 25 37 42 63 28 11 6 15 -1 8 700-850 TADV 35 36 16 8 4 8 9 9 12 18 7 40 9 2 0 10 33 LAND (KM) 114 140 193 226 254 108 86 154 147 -7 110 74 68 -11 -1 201 688 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.4 28.0 29.7 32.0 34.9 37.9 40.9 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 75.1 76.1 77.0 77.9 79.0 79.6 79.5 78.4 76.5 74.0 70.7 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 9 10 14 17 19 20 19 20 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 48 48 52 44 42 40 39 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -10. -15. -22. -29. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -11. -16. -21. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -7. -1. -0. -8. -21. -35. -46. -56. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.3 74.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.0% 7.4% 6.0% 5.4% 7.0% 5.7% 4.5% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 61 58 56 54 55 58 56 62 55 42 32 25 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 56 54 55 58 56 62 55 42 32 25 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 54 52 53 56 54 60 53 40 30 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 48 49 52 50 56 49 36 26 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT