* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 46 50 54 60 58 55 45 32 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 44 48 52 58 56 53 43 30 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 47 46 45 42 40 39 40 44 49 54 52 45 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 27 25 18 24 19 21 10 14 15 25 42 53 63 71 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 7 7 5 0 3 0 9 5 11 10 2 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 256 242 258 262 254 254 268 266 262 239 200 196 207 229 241 252 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.8 29.1 29.8 29.9 27.8 26.4 18.3 18.4 13.8 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 152 155 156 157 155 165 153 166 170 137 122 79 79 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 147 148 147 144 139 145 132 145 151 122 108 73 73 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 51 52 50 53 53 53 46 48 50 52 47 46 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 17 17 16 15 16 17 19 18 18 15 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 23 -3 -14 -23 -42 -54 -66 -28 -68 -37 -51 -33 -25 -6 17 15 200 MB DIV 39 47 18 0 12 -1 5 -2 27 24 57 39 29 4 -7 -7 -22 700-850 TADV 30 31 29 41 35 7 4 3 3 4 15 19 9 -27 -18 -64 -21 LAND (KM) -33 11 100 146 172 239 147 74 123 199 74 102 214 148 114 128 289 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.4 29.2 31.0 33.4 36.3 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 71.3 72.7 73.9 75.2 77.2 78.7 79.5 79.6 79.1 77.5 74.7 70.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 11 16 20 23 23 22 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 41 38 46 48 41 41 35 46 37 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 18. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -11. -12. -16. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -0. 4. 10. 8. 5. -5. -18. -29. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 69.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.1% 9.4% 7.2% 6.5% 8.8% 9.2% 8.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.4% 2.3% 3.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.3% 4.0% 3.6% 2.6% 3.9% 4.1% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 44 48 52 58 56 53 43 30 19 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 44 48 52 58 56 53 43 30 19 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 44 42 41 45 49 55 53 50 40 27 16 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 36 35 39 43 49 47 44 34 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT