* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 53 53 50 45 44 39 41 37 41 40 43 38 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 44 35 38 35 30 29 24 27 23 24 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 44 46 33 36 33 30 28 27 27 27 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 10 15 22 27 21 22 22 27 30 39 40 29 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 8 7 5 4 5 3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 215 240 249 254 235 260 234 253 244 274 250 258 241 240 219 218 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.5 29.0 29.2 29.2 30.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.7 30.6 30.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 156 156 151 163 153 156 155 171 163 169 168 170 170 171 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 156 156 151 160 145 144 139 158 143 145 143 154 152 153 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 6 10 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 53 51 46 47 50 51 53 53 56 57 56 56 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 17 15 13 10 9 6 7 4 6 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 97 80 67 54 55 33 -9 -21 -40 -43 -64 -18 -19 22 25 38 13 200 MB DIV 45 53 74 58 53 34 1 2 -10 8 0 26 18 19 61 41 51 700-850 TADV 9 3 0 3 17 15 13 -5 -5 -1 -3 0 1 2 -1 7 4 LAND (KM) 424 234 107 73 -17 0 25 57 102 25 54 30 33 -76 -118 -101 -194 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.9 21.3 22.7 23.8 25.0 26.3 27.7 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.6 66.4 68.1 69.8 73.0 75.9 78.2 79.9 81.3 82.4 83.1 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 18 17 16 14 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 93 82 50 54 34 58 49 46 69 58 51 6 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 33. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -23. -23. -27. -24. -26. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 10. 5. 4. -1. 1. -3. 1. -0. 3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 62.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 39.9% 25.1% 12.8% 10.1% 16.7% 13.4% 13.4% Logistic: 18.7% 31.6% 29.6% 11.8% 3.6% 5.1% 2.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.4% 8.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% Consensus: 10.9% 24.0% 21.1% 8.7% 4.7% 7.7% 5.8% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 48 44 35 38 35 30 29 24 27 23 24 26 26 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 40 31 34 31 26 25 20 23 19 20 22 22 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 35 26 29 26 21 20 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 17 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT