* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 68 64 61 58 58 55 52 49 47 47 44 42 39 38 V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 68 64 61 59 58 55 52 49 47 47 44 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 71 68 63 60 57 53 50 49 48 49 50 52 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 17 22 18 16 13 18 18 19 20 16 17 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 9 3 3 5 7 5 5 6 4 4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 205 193 191 203 189 191 172 203 202 218 235 267 339 335 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.2 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 134 138 138 138 140 144 148 150 149 151 150 149 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 38 37 36 36 35 35 34 37 39 40 45 50 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 10 8 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -16 -16 -24 -28 -28 -38 -45 -50 -43 -57 -50 -75 -79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 28 39 42 22 27 18 40 9 -1 -5 0 -19 32 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 0 -12 -6 8 0 4 1 -4 0 0 5 9 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 164 98 27 7 0 222 544 871 1216 1579 1967 2355 2735 2801 2472 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.6 155.1 156.5 157.9 159.3 162.2 165.3 168.5 171.9 175.5 179.3 183.1 186.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 8 14 12 13 10 20 18 18 18 17 13 10 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -22. -25. -28. -31. -33. -33. -36. -38. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.5 153.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 773.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.05 -0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 15.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##