* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 79 76 66 54 50 48 46 44 43 43 44 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 75 68 53 42 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 56 43 36 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 27 27 16 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -1 0 -2 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 349 334 334 351 351 333 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 154 149 143 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 139 134 130 125 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 11 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 63 68 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 18 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 35 37 46 27 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 34 13 20 33 21 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 0 5 -6 -9 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 65 -11 -86 -167 -248 -386 -401 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.5 98.3 99.1 99.9 101.4 102.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 27 6 4 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -29. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 1. -9. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -31. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 27.0 96.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 22.3% 14.7% 13.4% 8.2% 9.5% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 26.9% 36.9% 30.0% 28.5% 19.0% 16.2% 7.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 24.0% 25.6% 12.3% 12.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.4% 4.2% Consensus: 24.7% 28.3% 19.0% 18.2% 9.6% 9.2% 5.7% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 53 42 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 59 48 41 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 12HR AGO 75 72 71 60 53 47 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 52 51 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT