* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 77 72 66 62 58 53 51 51 45 42 39 36 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 90 83 77 72 66 62 52 53 51 51 45 42 39 37 36 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 77 72 68 62 58 56 53 52 49 45 41 37 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 13 16 18 20 21 19 21 27 29 23 18 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 4 3 2 7 11 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 206 196 205 219 208 204 202 209 191 201 198 220 236 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.9 28.2 27.9 28.2 27.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 122 122 126 133 139 140 138 145 148 145 148 143 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 46 42 38 38 37 39 40 43 46 45 48 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 16 16 15 14 13 14 11 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -10 -10 -12 -6 -12 -14 -25 -28 -42 -41 -45 -55 -56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 7 21 15 17 20 11 9 11 29 17 7 0 9 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 5 6 1 2 0 2 0 4 -3 -1 2 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 760 597 439 294 179 42 -7 257 608 961 1311 1640 1962 2286 2596 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 149.1 150.6 152.0 153.5 156.4 159.4 162.6 166.0 169.4 172.8 176.0 179.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 14 16 11 18 16 11 12 7 18 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. -27. -27. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -32. -37. -39. -39. -45. -48. -51. -54. -54. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.7 147.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 745.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##