* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 75 74 65 58 56 55 53 51 49 50 50 50 49 46 V (KT) LAND 65 70 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 66 51 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 18 15 26 25 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 0 -2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 349 330 330 347 319 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 154 159 159 154 149 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 138 137 133 130 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 14 12 11 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 63 64 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 24 23 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 41 36 36 50 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 49 39 12 18 58 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 0 0 -5 -8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 136 65 -15 -86 -157 -312 -438 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.8 97.6 98.3 99.0 100.5 102.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 21 29 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -7. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 9. 0. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -15. -15. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.1 96.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.6% 25.6% 19.9% 16.0% 9.0% 10.3% 10.0% 7.3% Logistic: 26.0% 29.9% 23.5% 24.1% 13.5% 22.0% 13.1% 5.1% Bayesian: 24.1% 21.5% 9.4% 9.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 2.4% Consensus: 24.9% 25.7% 17.6% 16.6% 7.8% 11.2% 7.7% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 55 42 33 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 65 62 61 48 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 46 38 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT